Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 8.3 | 13.3% | 79 | 0.69% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 9.1 | 17.4% | 104 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 9.1 | 17.4% | 104 | 0.5% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 10.6 | 18.1% | 108 | 0.79% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 7.7 | 12.6% | 75 | 0.72% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 5.4 | 8.2% | 49 | 0.39% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.1 | 7.2% | 43 | 0.37% |
| 70+ | 5 | 3.1 | 5.7% | 34 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 69 | 57.6 | 100% | 596 | 0.57% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | 16536 | 62772 | 539 | 142 | 551 |
| Oct 31 | 16583 | 62873 | 540 | 142 | 517 |
| Nov 01 | 16583 | 62920 | 540 | 142 | 461 |
| Nov 02 | 16638 | 62987 | 545 | 142 | 468 |
| Nov 03 | 16714 | 63070 | 545 | 142 | 496 |
| Nov 04 | 16813 | 63165 | 546 | 142 | 595 |
| Nov 05 | 16882 | 63260 | 547 | 142 | 596 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | 11040 | 36666 | 468 | 118 | 289 |
| Oct 31 | 11066 | 36697 | 469 | 118 | 282 |
| Nov 01 | 11079 | 36720 | 469 | 118 | 277 |
| Nov 02 | 11099 | 36761 | 471 | 118 | 245 |
| Nov 03 | 11158 | 36817 | 473 | 119 | 279 |
| Nov 04 | 11189 | 36850 | 474 | 119 | 303 |
| Nov 05 | 11241 | 36898 | 474 | 119 | 326 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.0 | 11.7% | 38 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 6.3 | 18.1% | 59 | 0.7% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 3.1 | 10.7% | 35 | 0.49% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 4.7 | 13.8% | 45 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 4.3 | 12.6% | 41 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 4.3 | 12% | 39 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 4.3 | 12.9% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 2 | 2.6 | 8.3% | 27 | 0.38% |
| All ages | 52 | 33.6 | 100% | 326 | 0.5% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | 8503 | 24373 | 399 | 94 | 251 |
| Oct 31 | 8524 | 24406 | 399 | 94 | 241 |
| Nov 01 | 8530 | 24423 | 399 | 94 | 205 |
| Nov 02 | 8553 | 24442 | 399 | 94 | 203 |
| Nov 03 | 8584 | 24485 | 400 | 94 | 224 |
| Nov 04 | 8632 | 24518 | 400 | 94 | 262 |
| Nov 05 | 8667 | 24549 | 400 | 94 | 286 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.4 | 14% | 40 | 0.74% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 5.7 | 16.1% | 46 | 0.85% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 3.6 | 10.8% | 31 | 0.69% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 4.6 | 16.1% | 46 | 0.85% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 3.1 | 11.5% | 33 | 0.66% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.6 | 15% | 43 | 0.63% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.4 | 9.1% | 26 | 0.41% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.0 | 7.3% | 21 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 35 | 30.4 | 100% | 286 | 0.63% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | 17524 | 72207 | 669 | 115 | 412 |
| Oct 31 | 17538 | 72261 | 670 | 115 | 388 |
| Nov 01 | 17572 | 72318 | 670 | 115 | 381 |
| Nov 02 | 17618 | 72429 | 671 | 116 | 392 |
| Nov 03 | 17698 | 72534 | 671 | 116 | 436 |
| Nov 04 | 17755 | 72635 | 671 | 116 | 487 |
| Nov 05 | 17832 | 72719 | 671 | 116 | 517 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 6.4 | 11.6% | 60 | 0.51% |
| 10-19 | 16 | 10.3 | 20.5% | 106 | 0.64% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 9.3 | 16.1% | 83 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 9.9 | 17.2% | 89 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 6.6 | 11.4% | 59 | 0.43% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.4 | 9.7% | 50 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 3.1 | 6.4% | 33 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 5 | 2.7 | 7% | 36 | 0.28% |
| All ages | 77 | 52.9 | 100% | 517 | 0.44% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | 58094 | 425491 | 1974 | 375 | 974 |
| Oct 31 | 58163 | 425792 | 1975 | 375 | 924 |
| Nov 01 | 58218 | 426164 | 1976 | 375 | 886 |
| Nov 02 | 58311 | 426531 | 1977 | 375 | 864 |
| Nov 03 | 58441 | 426977 | 1978 | 375 | 956 |
| Nov 04 | 58594 | 427528 | 1980 | 375 | 1044 |
| Nov 05 | 58765 | 428035 | 1981 | 375 | 1100 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 19 | 15.9 | 15.1% | 166 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 14.9 | 13.4% | 147 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 43 | 20.4 | 18.5% | 203 | 0.2% |
| 30-39 | 32 | 19.6 | 16.5% | 181 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 23 | 13.4 | 11.5% | 126 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 16 | 11.0 | 9.7% | 107 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 10.3 | 9.7% | 107 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 4 | 6.3 | 5.7% | 63 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 171 | 111.7 | 100% | 1100 | 0.2% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | 884960 | 3542429 | 45417 | 9507 | 22679 |
| Oct 31 | 885877 | 3545781 | 45456 | 9515 | 20993 |
| Nov 01 | 887075 | 3548520 | 45497 | 9515 | 19782 |
| Nov 02 | 890069 | 3551826 | 45558 | 9525 | 20037 |
| Nov 03 | 892970 | 3556772 | 45615 | 9536 | 21997 |
| Nov 04 | 896336 | 3562404 | 45658 | 9540 | 24508 |
| Nov 05 | 899647 | 3566550 | 45672 | 9542 | 24873 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 396 | 316.6 | 12.7% | 3158 | 0.49% |
| 10-19 | 554 | 376.1 | 16% | 3970 | 0.52% |
| 20-29 | 468 | 300.0 | 12.2% | 3029 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 525 | 404.1 | 15.8% | 3940 | 0.52% |
| 40-49 | 449 | 338.9 | 13.6% | 3379 | 0.48% |
| 50-59 | 380 | 303.4 | 12.2% | 3038 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 316 | 244.0 | 9.9% | 2466 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 221 | 185.9 | 7.5% | 1877 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 3311 | 2470.7 | 100% | 24873 | 0.43% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-11-28 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 9280"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges